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Trends in subprime auto lending and related ABS have evoked comparisons to the subprime mortgage market. Where many see a potential crisis, others point to significant differences to pre-financial crisis RMBS. To shed light on the issue, the Credit Chronometer has identified historical indicators of performance – within lending practices, securitization practices and the underlying market for the assets backing the pooled loans – and analyzes the market using a disciplined comparative approach.
The Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer provides a quick view of risk in the market based on the indicators of crisis and their prevalence in subprime auto lending and ABS today.
Listen to a recent ConsumerFi podcast for Joseph Cioffi‘s review of the key findings from Credit Chronometer’s Subprime Auto Market Study conducted at the outset of the pandemic in advance of the release of our latest findings to update market sentiment six months into the crisis.
Davis & Gilbert’s Insolvency, Creditors’ Rights & Financial Products Practice Group represents clients in a broad range of corporate, insolvency and litigation matters. The group has been actively involved in many of the most notable and highly visible business events in recent years related to the last economic downturn and has vast experience in the area of subprime lending, including the operation of origination platforms, relationships with servicers and defending large-scale asset-backed securities litigation. The broad and diverse experience of their attorneys makes them particularly well-equipped to advise clients in rapidly evolving markets, such as, those for auto loans, student loans, marketplace lending, mortgage loans and environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing. Additional highlights of the practice include the following:
Litigation: The group regularly prosecutes and defends litigation involving complex financial transactions and instruments and has defended asset-backed securities litigation, including for residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), encompassing fraud and repurchase claims, involving nearly $2 billion in claims.
Bankruptcy: The group guides clients through financially distressed situations and helps formulate and execute creditor enforcement strategies, in particular, in the case of intermediaries facing obligations to third parties. The group has defended nearly $1 billion in fraudulent transfer claims brought by the trustee for the liquidation of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC.
Corporate: The group also advises on a full range of financing transactions, including secured revolving and term credit facilities, receivable financing arrangements, intercreditor agreements, warehouse lending facilities and loan purchase agreements.
For more information about the Insolvency, Creditors’ Rights & Financial Products Practice Group, click here.
As we continue to break down and analyze the responses to our subprime auto survey, covered in our inaugural market study, servicers, deserve a closer look given the unique vantage point they have in securitizations.
It could be easy to overlook them in favor of originators and investors, the alpha and zeta in the chain. Servicers may not have originated the loans, and they may not be as vested in performance as investors, but no other group is on the frontline of collection and loss mitigation. They are the participant group in the proverbial front seat with the best view ahead – who better to point the way?
So, which way do servicers point versus originators and investors? Servicers are:
Overall, servicers are more bullish on performance, yet less likely to see past downgrades as an aberration and see trouble ahead for subordinated tranches. On one hand, this would seem to reflect the confidence that comes with control – the ability to positively impact performance through skilled servicing – and, on the other hand, concerns that come from knowledge of issues seen on the front lines of collection and loss mitigation.
The dynamic raises a fair question: what do servicers know that others don’t that make them the most concerned about the Honor downgrades and as concerned as investors that subordinated tranches will not be protected?
It would seem that quality servicing, including specialized loss mitigation expertise, is about to become even more important to loan performance achieving market expectations.