Credit Chronometer

AUTO LOANS

Trends in subprime auto lending and related ABS have evoked comparisons to the subprime mortgage market. Where many see a potential crisis, others point to significant differences to pre-financial crisis RMBS. To shed light on the issue, the Credit Chronometer has identified historical indicators of performance – within lending practices, securitization practices and the underlying market for the assets backing the pooled loans – and analyzes the market using a disciplined comparative approach.

The Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer provides a quick view of risk in the market based on the indicators of crisis and their prevalence in subprime auto lending and ABS today.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Joseph Cioffi is a partner at Davis & Gilbert in New York City where he is Chair of the Insolvency, Creditors’ Rights & Financial Products Practice Group, a multidisciplinary practice spanning corporate, insolvency and litigation. He has a unique perspective afforded by his experience in all stages of credit and market cycles, including in subprime lending investments, operations and litigation. Joseph and his group have been deeply involved in disputes and litigation resulting from the last financial crisis. He has written for or has been quoted by numerous publications, including American Banker, Asset Backed Alert, Asset Securitization Report, Auto Finance News, The Banking Law Journal, Consumer Financial Services Law Report, Financial Times, GlobalCapital, The Journal of Bankruptcy Law, Non-Prime Times, NPR, Structured Credit Investor and Westlaw Journal Automotive regarding auto loans, student loans, marketplace lending, subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing.

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Listen to a recent ConsumerFi podcast for Joseph Cioffi‘s review of the key findings from Credit Chronometer’s Subprime Auto Market Study conducted at the outset of the pandemic in advance of the release of our latest findings to update market sentiment six months into the crisis.

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ABOUT THE INSOLVENCY, CREDITORS’ RIGHTS & FINANCIAL PRODUCTS GROUP

Davis & Gilbert’s Insolvency, Creditors’ Rights & Financial Products Practice Group represents clients in a broad range of corporate, insolvency and litigation matters. The group has been actively involved in many of the most notable and highly visible business events in recent years related to the last economic downturn and has vast experience in the area of subprime lending, including the operation of origination platforms, relationships with servicers and defending large-scale asset-backed securities litigation. The broad and diverse experience of their attorneys makes them particularly well-equipped to advise clients in rapidly evolving markets, such as, those for auto loans, student loans, marketplace lending, mortgage loans and environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing. Additional highlights of the practice include the following:

Litigation: The group regularly prosecutes and defends litigation involving complex financial transactions and instruments and has defended asset-backed securities litigation, including for residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), encompassing fraud and repurchase claims, involving nearly $2 billion in claims.

Bankruptcy: The group guides clients through financially distressed situations and helps formulate and execute creditor enforcement strategies, in particular, in the case of intermediaries facing obligations to third parties. The group has defended nearly $1 billion in fraudulent transfer claims brought by the trustee for the liquidation of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC.

Corporate: The group also advises on a full range of financing transactions, including secured revolving and term credit facilities, receivable financing arrangements, intercreditor agreements, warehouse lending facilities and loan purchase agreements.

For more information about the Insolvency, Creditors’ Rights & Financial Products Practice Group, click here.

Auto Loans

Second Annual Subprime Auto Market Study Will Reveal the Current State of Market Participants’ Expectations

Jan 23, 2020 | By JOSEPH CIOFFI

Que sera, sera; what will be, will be.

While it may be true, yielding to that platitude is a terrible way to create a successful future. Instead, we say, “what will be, will be what you expect…if you are prepared.”

We’re calling on market participants in all roles – originators, investors, servicers, trustees and others – to participate in our second annual 360˚ market study that will analyze industry leaders’ perceptions of where the subprime auto finance market is heading. When the results are in, participants will have a view to each other’s expectations – a way to a more certain future.

Like Ken Miles in search of the perfect lap at Le Mans, as a follow-up to our last survey, we will be further exploring the concept of C³ equilibrium – the ideal state where credit ratings, credit enhancements and credit quality work together to contribute to a securitization’s and the market’s success.

Since the study first launched, we’ve begun to see market changes in line with participants’ expectations, from credit rating downgrades to higher delinquencies occurring against the backdrop of economic uncertainty.

The current study will show, among other things, if participants’ views have now changed regarding the largest risks to performance, given that the greatest concern noted in the prior study – an economic downturn – has not materialized as many had feared, and yet delinquencies continue to climb. Specifically, we’re probing whether layered risk which comes with extended loan terms – now averaging 63 months and up to 84 months on used vehicles – may be a larger worry that should be addressed.

You can provide your input and be part of the solution at the same time. Take the three-minute survey here and you’ll receive a complimentary copy of the market study when it is published in May.

Emily Hatchett, a paralegal in the Insolvency, Creditor’s Rights and Financial Products Group, assisted with this post.